Comments for

Comment on Gift Card Arbitrage by snooker

snooker — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 20:00:05 +0000

awesome

Comment on A La Francaise by NegativeConvexity

NegativeConvexity — Wed, 20 May 2009 13:55:29 +0000

I like the phrase “mainland Europe.” Should we read into this? A slight reference to our friends in the PRC?

I think usually folks use “continental” for Europe.

Comment on Stag Be Damned by CarryTrade

CarryTrade — Sat, 09 May 2009 15:16:35 +0000

When I say suboptimal, I am talking about the outcome for the “holdouts.” IE, they were trying to cooperate and go after the optimal stag, but their coalition fell apart and each was left with a suboptimal rabbit. Optimal in this case being maximizing returns on your bonds; suboptimal being just accepting the government’s deal. Therefore, I agree with your hero characterization and only wish they had read more Rousseau.

Comment on Stag Be Damned by SaabOwner

SaabOwner — Sat, 09 May 2009 12:20:10 +0000

Suboptimal for who? I say that whoever obstructs the government’s efforts to “build the cars of the future” is a national hero.

You want an “optimal,” organize-your-own-industry-leading-chaibol style outcome for America, at least choose something interesting, zany, insane, and with military ties, like Tesla Motors, http://www.teslamotors.com/

PS - Unless the gvmt. wants to bail out Swedish Saab.

Comment on 12 Reasons Not to Believe Ed Yardeni by CarryTrade

CarryTrade — Wed, 06 May 2009 18:32:33 +0000

To say that over-enthusiasm caused the current situation is one thing. To then say that this must mean that false pessimism will lead us out ignores the facts. Fake wealth perception led to a lot of bad decisions, and those decisions have significant repercussions. I would argue we are still feeling them. In an attempt to rectify those repercussions, the government has made decisions that themselves have major repercussions on a macro scale - think inflation. You can play the game of perception-reality being the driving force behind all markets, but I would rather consider perceptions and realities to be only part of the situation. The stock market has been, and continues to be, misused as a perfect proxy for the health of an economy. It is merely a factor. You can’t fool the numbers.

Comment on 12 Reasons Not to Believe Ed Yardeni by DC

DC — Tue, 05 May 2009 00:28:06 +0000

A fake wealth perception (comparable to dot com) helped lead the economy into the current situation. Now the never ending gloom and doom perception is providing yet another false reality. Things are not good but better.

Comment on The Fed’s Balance Sheet by Shorting the Ten |

Shorting the Ten | — Mon, 04 May 2009 22:16:29 +0000

[...] up on concerns being voice all over the place (including this website), the NYT highlights the creeping 10-year UST yield - highest yield since November. While this is [...]

Comment on Should We Scrap the Dollar as the World’s Reserve Currency? by NegativeConvexity

NegativeConvexity — Mon, 04 May 2009 20:04:15 +0000

Thanks for the kind words, CarryTrade.

I was hoping to add value by pointing out the bizarre selection of the SDR. Why not call for a new Bancor? Everyone seems to be a Keynesian these days.

Interesting to see the boosted presence of the Chinese, though.

Comment on China has ‘canceled US credit card’: lawmaker by CarryTrade

CarryTrade — Mon, 04 May 2009 18:52:39 +0000

And I generally don’t believe Congressmen.

Aside from the cute soundbyte, there are stil repercussions of a decreasing Chinese appetite for dollars.

Comment on Should We Scrap the Dollar as the World’s Reserve Currency? by CarryTrade

CarryTrade — Mon, 04 May 2009 17:52:33 +0000

I think this blog addressed this issue before the G20 when the statements emerged (http://deltahedged.com/?p=284), but this is by far a more effective treatment. Clearly the work of a current academic. Well done.